There is nothing definite about poker. For example, it is not uncommon to see a seemingly solid player – at least judging by the HUD stats – “telephone” three streets with some bottom pair, as a result of which it makes us wonder whether we should give up bluffs at all. future!
The only thing that can be said with 100% certainty in poker is, for example, if we have it in our hands qc, then none of the players have it anymore. The presence of a lady blocks not one combination of KQ on K- high boards, but as many as three. The opponent’s number of KQ combinations is reduced from 12 to 9. And in this case, I will be sure that the opponent will have this hand much less often than usual. This is how blockers work in poker . And they are the ones who will determine the course of today’s distribution.
Flop – Range Advantage
On such a flop, we need to use a 1/3 to 1/2 pot c-bet size with our entire range so as not to complicate our strategy and not create an unnecessary checking range for anyone.
The range advantage allows us to do this. And since we are setting as marginally as possible, there is no reason to use a large size.
Turn – Two Approaches to Barreling Strategy
On the turn, you should already think about where we are and our range, in terms of the possibility of continuing to barreling.
First of all, our hand doesn’t have a lot of SDV , which tilts us more towards beta than checking. But the question remains: if we bet a hand with such weak equity, would we be re-bluffing? And the answer is absolutely no.
We have a flush draw or a gutshot on such a board and with such wide ranges it will be extremely rare. And in this case, two strategies are appropriate on the turn. Let’s take a look at them and find out why the bet will be justified in both of them.
Strategy # 1: This is a more polarized betting variation where we value relatively strong hands using a large size, without placing thin value bets and hands for protection. This strategy will not allow us to have too many bluffs (keeping balance) due to the narrowed value range.
Bet-sizing should be large, as we represent hands stronger than average K4s . With this approach, we have to check a lot of our weak kings and worse made hands in order to call-down our opponent’s prob-bets on the river. These hands will balance all of our garbage with which we planned to give up.
The nice thing about this strategy is that we maximize value with our strong hands, and we also maximize fold equity with no-big draw hands. The downside is that we will have to fold a lot of air hands, and we also won’t be able to protect hands like 99 . But even with this strategy, we don’t have enough flush draws to get enough bluffs, so QJ is perfect for this role, given that this hand blocks the opponent’s calling range [KJ-KQ] .
We also need bluff combinations on the xsrivers.
Strategy # 2: This is a less polar option. Here we will be betting on a merge, with a smaller sizing, and will do this in order to protect equity and put more pressure on the floats of the flop.
And with such a strategy, QJ will also enter the bluff range, since this is favored by an extended value range. The reduced bet size does limit the number of bluffs, though. We still have to check after the turn some of our middle and strong hands, but less often than in strategy # 1.
This strategy is good if we are playing against a square that is calling too loosely against a small flop size. A more polarized strategy, on the other hand, will work against players who are too tight on the flop. And I expect that the latter is more likely at NL25, and therefore I would reserve strategy # 2 for a stronger field.
As for Hiro’s sizing, it can be normal if his strategy is somewhere between the two suggested above. In reality, I think it needs to be bigger and more polarized so that we can get more fold equity given our opponent’s relatively tight flop calls. I would bet around 7.5 bb.
River – the influence of blockers
On the river, the opponent may still be uncaptured given such a dry board and therefore we cannot overbet here. we would prefer a sizing around 17bb, which allows us to have a balanced bluff / value ratio around 30:70.
Our range has increased significantly on the river map. And although we can no longer value bet as many top pairs as we do on the blank river, nevertheless we compensate for this shortcoming with closed flushes. Yes, we will not have all the flushes here, because we would have to check some of them (with BB) on the turn, like as5sor asqs, but we still have enough of them.
Our hand is now the perfect bluff. She blocks flushes and [KJ-KQ] , which are unlikely to fold. Plus, it’s hard for us to put air on the river. If we are not bluffing with that particular hand, then we are essentially not bluffing with the best bluffing hand. This means that we will not have a bluffing range at all, which is naturally a fundamental strategic mistake.
Not surprisingly, everyone is advised to re-carry the river at limits like NL25!
Hand Conclusion: Before the river everything is done well, but the river is bad. player should be more careful with his balance and learn to choose bluffs on the expensive streets.
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