There are a number of interesting points and mistakes made by player in the early stages in this hand that are worth considering.
The oversized preflop bet size is presumably targeting a suspicious short-stacked SB player who is most likely a fish. Otherwise, it is too big considering the opponent’s high 3-bet on BB.
And it is as a result of the large sizing of the steel that the first main feature of this spot arises. BB is forced to call tighter. It’s not so much that pot odds on calling have gotten worse and marginal hands are now -EV, but that the opponent on the SB is supposed to call wide, and thus the need to defend against the steal is shared between the two players: BB and a loose SB.
That is why the BB can shamelessly defend a tighter range than under normal conditions and against a smaller steal sizing.
Thus, from a strategic point of view, range betting (betting from 100% of the range) is not possible , and therefore we need to play more often by checking against a stronger opponent’s range. That is, on the flop we should bet with a polarized range, which requires an increase in sizing.
And it looks like the K7o hand should be check-back with the intention of giving up on our opponent’s prob -bet on the turn. This hand has pretty useless blockers to our opponent’s calling and raising range and very poor equity if called.
Hiro, however, did not take this into account and decided to range-bet – this is a strategy that under normal conditions would be quite appropriate if the opponent had a weaker range.
Turn – check-back on the river.
On the turn, Hiro probably realized that he had made a mistake and now needs to give up too often due to the fact that he put the entire range on the flop with no advantage in his range. Well, at least the free river allows us to take the position!
Hiro happily accepts the offer and checks, hoping to get into koor 7o. Sevens are enough to catch bluffs on the blank river or just check to show and win.
River – keeping bluff balance.
The ace on the river may seem like a tempting card to continue bluffing, but we shouldn’t be tempted to. Our range is still very, very wide and still loses to our opponent’s range, especially after we checked the turn. And despite the fact that the opponent also dropped his range by checking on the river , he would often check his hands without BDM, and therefore his checking range will now be strong enough to protect him on our bet
Hiro came to the river with over 500 combos, which makes it very easy for him to start over-bluffing now. And if our opponent realizes that we can re-bluff, his overcalls can have a very good effect.